Earlier on this evening prime minister Theresa May lost the meaningful vote on Brexit.

Shortly afterwards Leader of the Opposition Jeremy Corbyn tabled a vote of no confidence in the government that will take place tomorrow evening.

In the past such a large, significant and historic defeat for the government would have made such a vote a mere formality but these are not normal circumstances.

Instead don’t be surprised if May secures the confidence of the House of Commons tomorrow and does so relatively comfortably. The DUP will come back to the side of the government rather than chance their grip on power while the notorious European Research Group may not support the government but are not going to risk the prospect of deselection if they bring it down.

This puts the country in the rather odd position where we do not have a government that can deliver on the most fundamental constitutional issue of a generation and yet cannot be brought down as we sleepwalk towards the 29th March. Indeed it appears that no position would be able to command majority support. In the table below I estimate, based on the position of MPs, how things might shake out in various scenarios:

The evidence shows a country that is not simply divided between Brexit and remain but is instead along a spectrum with a people’s vote at one end and no deal Brexit at the other.

In that situation democratic politics would tend to lead towards a compromise but passions are so inflamed that alternatives such as the May deal or EFTA are painted as some kind of betrayal.

Fictional novels and movies are structured so that at this point the hero would sweep in and save the day but the grind of real world politics unfortunately does not work like this and means my email to you has no satisfactory ending.

Even Game of Thrones, the nearest rival to Brexit for factional warfare, will come to a conclusion in 2019 and when you are hoping that your country’s politics will begin to mirror that of Westeros you know that things could be better.