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No deal Brexit: Under prepared and overly optimistic

Dominic Raab

Dominic Raab – Image from the Guardian

When it comes to Brexit no one can accuse the European Union of not being prepared.

There are 68 notices on the European Commission’s website that cover a wide range of subject areas and outline the legal position after the UK leaves. Take, for example, the one on civil justice that concisely explains that important agreements and rules relating to jurisdiction, cooperation, recognition and enforcement will no longer be applicable in relation to the UK post-Brexit with a consequential impact on commercial law as well as family law too.

On the other hand the UK is significantly less well prepared and has not produced any such documents whatsoever.

The effect is a lot of uncertainty amongst broad cross-sections of the population and a lot of worry that they will lose certain rights and privileges.

That is due to change as the government begins to publish its own technical notices that also address a no deal scenario.

In theory this should be welcomed because it shows that officials are finally waking up to the real risk that we will leave the EU without an agreement in place. Of course Ministers paid lip service to the fact that they are still trying to work something out with Brussels but as we get closer to the March 2019 deadline that looks less likely by the day.

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab noted that this represented the actions of a “responsible government” that was prepared for all eventualities but it will be interesting to see just how realistic the advice is and how it stacks up against the notices prepared by the Commission.

When Ministers talk about the risks being “blown out of proportion” that raises legitimate alarm bells because there are significant risks that, as much as anything, should not be understated. The NHS is already getting ready to stockpile medical supplies and abandoning cooperation on criminal justice matters makes the UK much more vulnerable.

Brexiteers dismiss some of this as ‘Project Fear’ and there are areas where the eschatological despair of Remainers is exaggerated but that is no excuse for the government failing to take people’s concerns seriously.

Walking into a no deal Brexit with false optimism would actually be worse than going in blind.