The Barnett Formula and the Coalition
The main headline that emerged from the ‘confidence and supply’ agreement that was recently announced between the Conservative party and the Democratic Unionist Party was that Northern Ireland would be granted an extra £1billion over the next two years.
The decision has been met with a rather lukewarm reaction but let’s back up a minute and actually consider what a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement is.
Whereas the Tories entered into a formal coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrats after the 2010 general election, ‘confidence and supply’ is a much less formal agreement and means that the DUP will support the governing party in motions of confidence and budget bills etc. while not taking any cabinet posts.
What, then, is it in it for the DUP?
Well they do not have to take the government whip and while the DUP may support the Conservatives on a range of policy areas anyway, they do not have to vote with the government on all aspects of their legislative program. This may become very apparent on some of the more social and moral issues such as climate change or gay rights where, as previously discussed, the DUP have opinions that would have been considered regressive in the stone age.
The most salient incentive, however, is the extra £1billion for Northern Ireland over the next two years. From this two important questions emerge: what will be the effect on Northern Irish politics and what is the effect on other regions.
The simple answer to the first question is extra money! The funds will be spent across the region on a range of services such as hospitals, schools and infrastructure projects. This has been criticised because it means that spending per capita will now be much higher in Northern Ireland than anywhere else in the UK but that point is slightly myopic and misses the point. The violence that preceded peace in the North caused great devastation in the area and it is only right that extra funding is now available to help Northern Ireland develop alongside the rest of the UK.
The more worrying aspect of this extra funding is that it is dependent on a power-sharing agreement being reached between Sinn Féin and the DUP in Stormont. If Sinn Féin continue to balk at a deal (as is their right to do so) then it allows the DUP to paint the republicans as the bad guys as they will be the ones putting the extra funding at risk.
The overriding concern that has always hung over these talks between the DUP and the Tories is that it represents a threat to the Good Friday Agreement and this bribe (because that is what it is at the end of the day) will only stoke those fears as similar talks continue in Belfast between the DUP and Sinn Féin.
The other question is over the Barnett formula and whether Scotland and Wales should also now receive extra funding as a result of the agreement. That is the argument that has been put forward by Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the SNP, and Leanne Wood, the leader of Plaid Cymru.
It is important to note that the Barnett formula has “no legal standing or democratic justification” and is merely a convention. The unfairness that has been highlighted only speaks to the unfairness of the agreement of confidence and supply itself.
The most important point to take from this is that Theresa May is lucky that Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Tories, is on board with this deal. After she received plaudits for the performance of the Conservative party North of the border during the election it was certainly within her power to make more demands from Westminster including her own confidence and supply arrangement. However with the SNP still holding sway in Holyrood the incentive for doing so was perhaps lacking.
Overall the DUP have clearly negotiated hard with a rather desperate prime minister and have got a good deal for themselves. The merits of such a deal for the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland itself does have to be seriously questioned though and will continue to pose a threat to Theresa May’s preiership.